Is it possible...?

[AndyJWest]

@Jaws2002: 

 

It is worth noting that the 'coronavirus' referred to in that research is highly unlikely be the one responsible for COVD-19, since it was first published in October 2019. There are many coronaviruses, including one frequently responsible for the common cold.

 

As for the research, I've not read it, and quite likely wouldn't entirely understand it if I did, but I'd be very surprised if it actually stated anywhere that "You are three times more likely to get infected if you got the flu vaccine" for coronaviruses in general. It certainly doesn't say that in the conclusions. 'Association' does not prove causality.

[Jaws2002]

6 minutes ago, AndyJWest said:

It is worth noting that the 'coronavirus' referred to in that research is highly unlikely be the one responsible for COVD-19, since it was first published in October 2019. There are many coronaviruses, including one frequently responsible for the common cold.

 

 

 i agree with that, that test was done in 2018, but covid19 is also part of the larger corona virus family.

 

6 minutes ago, AndyJWest said:

As for the research, I've not read it, and quite likely wouldn't entirely understand it if I did, but I'd be very surprised if it actually stated anywhere that "You are three times more likely to get infected if you got the flu vaccine" for coronaviruses in general. It certainly doesn't say that in the conclusions. 'Association' does not prove causality.

 

 

That was just my conclusion based on the results in the table i posted. 507 cases for the vaccinated and 170 cases for the non vaccinated.

[RAYEU]

40.000 EEUU soldiers just arrived in Spain ? For what’s?

I am in the Pirinies Mountains.

1. Understood the reason to unarmed the People of EEUU .

Please confirm that .! 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by RAYEU

[AndyJWest]

@Jaws2002

 

If there is a causal relationship between flu vaccination and subsequent infection with COVID-19, it will be demonstrated through proper research, rather than by reading conclusions into a study that cannot possibly have tested the hypothesis.

 

I'd be very surprised if there was no correlation given that the flu vaccine is generally given to those most vulnerable to respiratory infections. The things that make you a candidate for flu vaccination are also ones that make you a target for colds etc. And make infection with COVID-19 more liable to have serious consequences.

Edited March 22, 2020 by AndyJWest

[DD_Arthur]

29 minutes ago, RAYEU said:

40.000 EEUU soldiers just arrived in Spain ? For what’s?

I am in the Pirinies Mountains.

1. Understood the reason to unarmed the People of EEUU .

Please confirm that .! 

 

They are massing on your borders now so they can invade Spain and subjugate you all RAYEU.  Isn't it obvious

 

Or RAYEU since you are a grown up, sensible family man you can get a proper grip on yourself and ignore the sort of nonsense you see on the internet and start behaving like a responsible adult.

 

What's it to be RAYEU?

 

 

[RAYEU]

40.000 EEUU soldiers with 15.000 military media’s between tanks , planes , helicopters... the EUROPE defender 20 . What is this ? Their destination is Poland.
‘Yes ! I am with the family in the Pirinees , what happens! 

Edited March 22, 2020 by RAYEU

[AndyJWest]

'What happens' is a NATO exercise that was planned long before the COVID-19 outbreak. 

 

https://www.eur.army.mil/Newsroom/Releases-Advisories/Press-Releases-Article-View/Article/1981905/defender-europe-20-builds-useucom-strategic-readiness-in-support-of-the-nationa/

 

The US at least seems to be reconsidering things, given the circumstances.

 

https://www.eur.army.mil/Newsroom/Releases-Advisories/Press-Releases-Article-View/Article/2110390/us-european-command-exercise-defender-europe-20-update/

 

[RAYEU]

Thanks Andy So it seems the have the vacuum of the Covid-19 and all these soldiers are vacuumed I mean , has the vaccine. Because they go to Europe without any viruses or bacteriological equipment.

?!

Edited March 22, 2020 by RAYEU

[AndyJWest]

I assume you mean 'vaccine' not 'vacuum'. ?

 

As for what anything 'seems', I rarely take much notice of random YouTube videos, especially ones in a language I don't understand. I think I can safely say though, that if NATO wanted to invade Spain (why?) they wouldn't announce it months in advance. 

[RAYEU]

Thanks vaccine ,  they are going to Poland .

Well yes ! if they have the vaccine of the covid19 they just invade Spain living all the Spanish people at home .And do not talk about the deaths .

Edited March 22, 2020 by RAYEU

[RAYEU]

Okay , just talking about all that EEUU soldiers crossing Europe and going to the frontiers of Russia , Poland .

Edited March 22, 2020 by RAYEU

[unreasonable]

44 minutes ago, Jaws2002 said:

 

That was just my conclusion based on the results in the table i posted. 507 cases for the vaccinated and 170 cases for the non vaccinated.

 

+1 for posting a relevant source, -1 for not reading it carefully.   

 

The sample of vaccinated people was larger than the sample of non-vaccinated. This shown not just in table 4 but also in the table you posted, where the % is shown in brackets.  So it is actually 7.8% vs 5.8%, ie vaccinated people about 35% more likely to catch corona in the trials. Note also that the %s are both fairly low, either reflecting the fact that people had relatively low exposure to corona in the trials or had pre-existing natural immunity. In contrast, we just do not know if anyone has any significant immunity to the new virus, plus it is likely that almost everyone will sooner or later get exposed to it. Extrapolating from this trial to the new case is invalid. 

 

The problem with the idea of isolating the vulnerable - conceivably every person over 70, and every male over 60, plus everyone else with HIV, Thalassemia or any number of other conditions, is that it would have to be permanent unless you can eradicate the virus completely on a global level. This may now be impossible: the virus from Wuhan is probably not going to die out, but become seasonal and continue to zing around the globe, just like influenza. If you isolate all the vulnerable and then let them out, at some future date  you will still get a massive peak of fatal illness.   It is just not on to place up to a quarter of your population into permanent solitary imprisonment.  So the lockdowns and social distancing for everyone are intended to spread the rate of infection so that hospitals can cope.

 

I actually have some sympathy for the argument that shutting down the economy could do more harm than good, but only in countries with little or no safety net and low private savings where if you cannot work you cannot eat. The trick will be to keep as much of the truly necessary going as possible. If European countries could do it during total war for several years, they can do it for a year or so now with no-one bombing them and sinking their convoys.

 

The way many Western Millennials are going on anyone would think that they want to kill off all us Boomers...    

[Jaws2002]

9 minutes ago, RAYEU said:

if they have the vaccine of the covid19 

 

 

They have no vaccines for it. I read an article two days ago, that US military quarantined 1500 troops in europe after 35 of them were tested positive with covid19.

[RAYEU]

Ok thanks Jaws ! Just to know.

Just to say that is not the best moment now to do the biggest military trooper movement of the history after the WW2 .

Edited March 22, 2020 by RAYEU

[Jaws2002]

The virus doesn't scare me, but I'm worried about all the rights and freedoms that are not going to come back after this crisis passes.

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, RAYEU said:

Ok thanks Jaws ! Just to know.

 

 

I found the link again. It's actually 2600 US troops in Europe in self quarantine and 35 tested positive:

 

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/us-military-personnel-self-isolation-europe-covid-19-coronavirus

Edited March 22, 2020 by Jaws2002

[RAYEU]

2600 us soldiers only 35 infected it seems me low proportional.

?! 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by RAYEU

[DD_Arthur]

Just now, RAYEU said:

Okay , just talking about all that EEUU soldiers crossing Europe and going to the frontiers of Russia , Poland .

 

RAY,  this exercise has been largely cancelled.  They were never all going across europe to Poland anyway.  This was primarily an exercise in logistics.  You really need to find a reliable source of information.  I understand Spain has several very good national newspapers.  I'd buy a couple on a daily basis and read them instead exposing yourself to the paranoid rubbish floating around the internet.

 

This was a very small exercise anyway.  Nearly forty years ago I took part in several of these and Nato could muster nearly a quarter of a million troops to trample German farmers crops and hopefully impress the USSR.

 

We all have a long, uncertain way to go with this thing.  For Spain and for all of us it will be about how our health services can stand the strain in the next few months.

 

Forget about soldiers,  think about the common sense advice we are all being given by our governments right now.

 

 

 

 

[Jaws2002]

5 minutes ago, RAYEU said:

2600 us soldiers only 35 infected it seems me low proportional.

?! 

 

 

This virus has a long incubation period, so it takes a week until they show symptoms and start spreading the virus to everyone else. So it multiplies in waves, coming a week or two apart. the 2600 are probably just people that came in contact with those 35 or other positive cases.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Jaws2002

[RAYEU]

Okay DD_Arthur Thanks for the information.I go to play with the IL2 BON Simulator & DCS F18C With the CVN-78 , tonight will sleep better but not at all .

A W D( ACEA: AGENTS del  CENTRO de CONTROL de ENFERMEDADES de ATLANTA in EUROPE .) SIDA RetroVirus : CDCS H P  Test M.

Tests CV19

? Tests CV19

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by RAYEU

[69th_Mobile_BBQ]

On 3/17/2020 at 12:46 PM, CorvusX said:

I wonder if it's possible that TV shows from the early nineties have a negative impact on today's society? 

 

 

 

This has been lurking in wait for the prophecy that soon, very soon, the "butthole cut" of "Cats" will arrive and together, they shall bring about the end of mankind.  

[Gambit21]

3 hours ago, Jaws2002 said:

Snopes is very shady. I wouldn't put too much thrust in what they say.

 But that doesn't matter now. We'll find out soon enough if those were coffins or not.

 

Snopes is EXTREMELY shady. 

[AndyJWest]

Just now, raaaid said:

the truth is not out there

 

maybe inside

 

The 'truth' is that viruses don't care about conspiracy theories. They don't care about what the mainstream media says.  They don't care about what people say on random internet forums. They don't care about scientific research into cures. They don't care about anything. They are incapable of caring.

 

They exist because they can exploit their host to make copies of themselves. That is all they do. Sometimes, exploiting a host does it significant damage. Sometimes it doesn't. They don't care. They are incapable of caring.

 

That is the only 'truth' you need to know about viruses. If you want to minimise the damage that viruses do, you don't want 'truth', you want knowledge. Sometimes, probably most of the time, imperfect knowledge is all you'll ever get. If it is enough to reduce the damage (by containment, by vaccination,  by treatment, whatever...) imperfect knowledge is good enough. Leave the search for 'truth' to the philosophers. If they ever figure out what 'truth' actually means...

 

 

[Gambit21]

5 hours ago, RAYEU said:

Ok thanks Jaws ! Just to know.

Just to say that is not the best moment now to do the biggest military trooper movement of the history after the WW2 .

 

There's a lot going on out there right now...not just this Covid19 thing.

Interesting times indeed.

 

 

[Vig]

6 hours ago, unreasonable said:

The problem with the idea of isolating the vulnerable - conceivably every person over 70, and every male over 60, plus everyone else with HIV, Thalassemia or any number of other conditions, is that it would have to be permanent unless you can eradicate the virus completely on a global level. This may now be impossible: the virus from Wuhan is probably not going to die out, but become seasonal and continue to zing around the globe, just like influenza. If you isolate all the vulnerable and then let them out, at some future date  you will still get a massive peak of fatal illness.

 

I had thought that this virus was too virulent to become endemic after the initial contagion, so I checked with my microbiologist daughter, who said you are most likely correct.   

[Gambit21]

We’ve known that it’s endemic up here for weeks now. CDC said aa much - no microbiologist daughter needed.  

[Jaws2002]

2 hours ago, Gambit21 said:

 

There's a lot going on out there right now...not just this Covid19 thing.

Interesting times indeed.

 

 

 

 

This pandemic could still be a front/distraction for something a lot more sinister.  Too many coincidences. 

[DD_Arthur]

2 minutes ago, Jaws2002 said:

This pandemic could still be a front/distraction for something a lot more sinister.  Too many coincidences. 

 

You're right Jaws!

By creating a global pandemic someone's bumped off Kenny Rodgers and nobody's noticed    

 

[Jaws2002]

6 minutes ago, DD_Arthur said:

 

You're right Jaws!

By creating a global pandemic someone's bumped off Kenny Rodgers and nobody's noticed    

 

 

 

I did notice :

 

 

 

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Jaws2002

[BraveSirRobin]

2 hours ago, Jaws2002 said:

 

 

This pandemic could still be a front/distraction for something a lot more sinister.  Too many coincidences. 

 

A disease that has the potential to kill more people than died during WW2 is just a diversion?  lol

 

That is some batshit crazy nonsense.

[Vig]

4 hours ago, Gambit21 said:

We’ve known that it’s endemic up here for weeks now. CDC said aa much - no microbiologist daughter needed.  

 

Oh, she's very handy to have around - she also catches alligators and makes cupcakes.

 

I mean "endemic" in the technical sense of maintaining a steady 1-to-1 ratio of transmission throughout the affected population without external inputs over a number of years.  This depends to a great extent on the degree of immunity conferred by prior infections.  For example, the 1919 Influenza did not return in 1920; this is characteristic of particularly virulent infections.    

[Gambit21]

9 minutes ago, Vig said:

 

I mean "endemic" in the technical sense of maintaining a steady 1-to-1 ratio of transmission throughout the affected population without external inputs over a number of years.  

 

Thank you  - I think the word was used in a less technical “it’s so widespread, we’re not going to bother testing” sense.

[ZachariasX]

2 hours ago, Vig said:

For example, the 1919 Influenza did not return in 1920; this is characteristic of particularly virulent infections.

This is not really how it works. At least if you put it that way.

 

I see there is really little understanding of how viruses work. So some words on that to give you an idea to assess you enemy and put the crap you are reading besides official statement (they are the only ones that help you). I'm telling you this as virologist and I did genetic engeneering on some viruses for years. I don't have a microbiologist daughter, just tow boys. But if they bring home a Gator, I'll let them hear it! Cupcakes are fine though.

 

A virus is selected ONLY for its ability to spread. Everything else is just tolerated, inasmuch as it doesn't hinder the spread.

 

This shouldn't give you too much comfort though, for instance viral hemorragic fevers are VERY virulent and they come back at us all the effin' time. Depending on how the basic replication mechanisms of that particular piece of code (a virus is a dead particle, dead as dust) work, it can be easier or harder to lose lethality regarding aspecific host.

 

What happens over time is that "free travelling program code" turns species/host specific, as this way it can adjust itself not to bother the host (and not indicing "stay at home phases" that works against spread) and just live with it. Herpes is your favorite virus. Extremely successful and every one has some. Especially at the age of our typical forist here. Channel catfish have their own Herpes as well! Yet they mostly live ok with it, as it in fact it usually does little to you.

 

With our our dear new Coronavirus, it jumped species. Same as HIV did before. This, and normally only this, gives you a deadly virus. It does so for two reasons: 1) It got seleted for efficient spread among his hosts and 2) it is by no means adjusted to his new host in terms that it doesn't do damage. As a result, you get a trained killer.

 

Knowing this, you can put all those tinfoil hat theories you are reading into perspective. It is extremely hard to make "the awful bio weapon virus" in a laboratory. A laboratory virus is (with very few exceptions) almost always far, far less "fit" than something you'd get from, say, a raccoon.

 

Normally, you can't get anything from a raccoon besides bacterial infections, but if you do get something from them,  it can be really, really, really!! bad. On he other hand, it could also be helpful. By milking cows, milkmaids got resistant to smallpox. Now, how cool is that? They inadvertedly infected themselves with cowpox that has a hard time spreading in humans, but can do so sufficiently to produce an immune response. Vacca = cow. That's what vaccination is. Vaccination is GOOD. I can't stress this enough.

 

The differerence between a vaccinated person and a "sceptic" is that the sceptic is dumb enough to let himself challenge with a fit and potent adversary that can well be a killer (he is also the criminal that goes out and does the same on others!!), whereas the vaccinated is just challenging himself with something that can't harm him, but makes his innate defense go up. Some vaccines provoke a better immune reaction, some less. Hence vaccinations differ in their effectivity and you have to repeat some more than others. This is not a conspiracy, this is how all this works.

 

The bottom line of this is, that a novel virus that just jumped species can indeed (almost) kill of the new hosts. It happened to Cheetahs when they got infected with with their very own kind of "HIV". Almost all of the cats died and ony a very small population survived. This lead to a very thinned out genetic diversity ("genetic impoverment") and this puts the whole remaining cats at risk through getting killed off by a single virus. Only genetic variety can safe you from being killed off collectively by a single virus type.

 

What this means regarding our COVID-19 is that indeed it can become endemic, as it spreads throughout the worlds poplulation in breathtaking speed and will always have someone carrying that virus. From there, it will spread as fast as it can, always, when given the chance. So, it is far from doing this:

3 hours ago, Vig said:

I mean "endemic" in the technical sense of maintaining a steady 1-to-1 ratio of transmission throughout the affected population

For the virus to succeed in such, he needs a reservoir. The flu has fowl in China here it can mutate happily, undisovered and not bothering the respective ducks. Every year, when it gets colder and the immune system in people is reduced enough (dry mucosa and sitting together inside does just that), it has jus enough growth to travel around the world again. For COVID-19 the reservoir is called "poor people", usually south of the equator or near it. To get rid of COVID there, I see no other way than vaccinating people, I mean everyone. It is also the only thing that will ease our life and rid us of constant surveillance through testing. But this is for summer next year, EARLIEST. What works in your test tube on your lab bench doesn't necessarily realate to a 10'000 gallon fermenter in a factory.

 

COVID-19 is really different. It can spread like almost no other. It can spread so well, that temperatures don't matter for it. It's just about to really take off in indonesia, and temperatures are toward the 90's F (or ~30° Centigrades). I hope they can act on that there. So if you are expecting summer to throttle COVID-19, you are expecting one helluva summer.

 

What can you do? The Chinese were rather successfull in locking up everyone (your IoT devices and mobile phones are great for the state having an eye on you), supressing the virus and now it is testing, testing, testing. Anyone suspected will be quarantined. Especially the later part, monitoring and having a plan fo quarantine is how Taiwan set the benchmark for dealing with the situation. It means that the virus will be eradicated. As soon as you can drop his growth rate <1, it will perish over time. Perish as the Spanish flu perished. But this may take time.

 

A problem here is that we know little about the actual case numbers, as many patients are (largely) asymptomatic while being good spreaders. So far, it is assumed this percentage to be about 30%, but it could be considerably higher. This puts the idea of just isolating sick persons into question and it doesn't really work in spread simulations. Until you tested almost all, you just don't know who is sick. Hence everyone stay at home.

 

Also, a note about testing. My wife is head of a testing lab that does COVID-19 test. First of all, there are way too few tests available. In Switzerland, we have them in the thousands, but we'd need a hundert fold of that. Also, you need kits to extract the viral material from the swabs. These extraction kits are as scarce as the detecton kits. Second, the simpler the test, the less acurate it is. If you want your result in an hour, you might let one out of three false negative off the hook. I cannot imagine doing meaningful testing without building up a far larger screening capacity. IOW, a financial disaster for all parties involved, as upon success, the investment will not be needed anymore and for the next pandemic it will be outdated.

 

You cannot make business with setting up such and use it only two years. COVID-19 is really bad for business, hence you see mosty propaganda from companies rather than deeper commitment. They just do more of what they do anyway. But invest? Nah. The only oprotunity in COVID-19 is in corporate crime.

 

 

15 hours ago, unreasonable said:

The way many Western Millennials are going on anyone would think that they want to kill off all us Boomers...    

Given what they can expect back from their pension funds after the Boomers are gone, it is almost a reasonable self defense. And they can have fun doing so. Hardly has revolution been more fun.

 

.. ah, wait. It's not. Younger ones can die too.

 

 

Anyway. for the time being, stay safe. Stay home!
 

[Zooropa_Fly]

9 hours ago, Jaws2002 said:

 

 

This pandemic could still be a front/distraction for something a lot more sinister.  Too many coincidences. 

 

Unfortunately Jaws, very few have the faintest idea how the World runs, or in fact has done since before the World wars.

Even the most intelligent still think that the people who run us are really nice people who are just doing their best to help us.

 

You can't fix programmed.