How, why, and when VR will fail

[SharpeXB]

Food for discussion...

 

http://www.pcgamesn.com/how-why-and-when-vr-will-fail

[JG27_Chivas]

Food for discussion...

 

http://www.pcgamesn.com/how-why-and-when-vr-will-fail

 

The article is suggesting the VR is too expensive, has too many issues to go mainstream, and succeed now.    Which is quite valid, if VR was intended to be an overnight success.  What most dissenters don't seem to get is Facebook, Samsung, HTC, etc. fully understood all these issues before they invested a single dollar. Their investment was in the future.   They knew that the first consumer products would never reach the masses, but each new consumer version would have the potential to reach more and more consumers.  The vast majority of the  hype isn't coming from any of these companies, its coming from the people using the products.  VR/AR isn't failing, its barely started. Its a tank slowly moving forward gathering big developers as it goes along, and will crush most of its dissenters on the way. 

[VBF-12_Stick-95]

Ya, the same thing was said of the personal computer I am reading the article on.

[SharpeXB]

My professor in college said computers would never catch on. Takes too long to do stuff on them...

 

What truly has me worried is these stupid games.

Like this Fly to Kuma

https://www2.oculus.com/experiences/app/1026362144104451/

 

And Lucky's Tale

https://www2.oculus.com/experiences/app/909129545868758/

 

You gotta be $% kidding! These are like games for an 8 year old to play on an iPad. You're going to sell these to someone with a GTX970 and a $600 headset. To play teddy bear games?! WTF?

 

Yeah VR is dead if this is the kind of game that you get with it.

Edited April 20, 2016 by SharpeXB

[JG27_Chivas]

My professor in college said computers would never catch on. Takes too long to do stuff on them...

 

What truly has me worried is these stupid games.

Like this Fly to Kuma

https://www2.oculus.com/experiences/app/1026362144104451/

 

And Lucky's Tale

https://www2.oculus.com/experiences/app/909129545868758/

 

You gotta be $% kidding! These are like games for an 8 year old to play on an iPad. You're going to sell these to someone with a GTX970 and a $600 headset. To play teddy bear games?! WTF?

 

Yeah VR is dead if this is the kind of game that you get with it.

 

Are you kidding?.  Yes there are childish games, as there should be, but you have heard of sims like DCS?  Not to mention that gaming will only be a miniscule part of the uses for VR/AR.  Military/Industrial/training/tourism/real-estate/architecture/medical etc etc etc etc etc etc.

[seafireliv]

Well all that stuff about 3D Tv that was supposed to be `teh futur` didn`t pan out did it? They hyped and pushed and hyped, but it slowly died. VR seems to be going the same way; a nice idea that certian people wish to be true.

 

You know what I`m really looking forwards to? REAL AI. The kind of AI that after you whine about a company`s crappy service, you put the phone down feeling happy that the nice lady you spoke to actually listened and  treated you like a Human being and will resolve your case quickly.

 

Then find out later it was an AI!

[SharpeXB]

Are you kidding?.  Yes there are childish games, as there should be, but you have heard of sims like DCS?  Not to mention that gaming will only be a miniscule part of the uses for VR/AR.  Military/Industrial/training/tourism/real-estate/architecture/medical etc etc etc etc etc etc.

Oh I plan on using one for Architecture. I can see that for certain.

 

The average PC gamer is 38 years old and has a median income of $69,000

What person in that demographic is going to buy a teddy bear game?

Edited April 20, 2016 by SharpeXB

[JG27_Chivas]

Oh I plan on using one for Architecture. I can see that for certain.

 

The average PC gamer is 38 years old and has a median income of $69,000

What person in that demographic is going to buy a teddy bear game?

 

Why would we even care about a teddy bear game........a teddy bear game isn't a VR killer, that said I've seen posts from older people who really enjoyed the teddy bear game. no harm no foul

[JG27_Chivas]

Well all that stuff about 3D Tv that was supposed to be `teh futur` didn`t pan out did it? They hyped and pushed and hyped, but it slowly died. VR seems to be going the same way; a nice idea that certian people wish to be true.

 

You know what I`m really looking forwards to? REAL AI. The kind of AI that after you whine about a company`s crappy service, you put the phone down feeling happy that the nice lady you spoke to actually listened and  treated you like a Human being and will resolve your case quickly.

 

Then find out later it was an AI!

 

What you don't seem to understand is that there is a huge difference in looking at a 3D world on a box, and being fully immersed in that 3D world.  Comparing VR/AR to 3D TV is quite frankly ridicules.  Personally I had zero interest in a 3D TV.

[-NW-ChiefRedCloud]

My professor in college said computers would never catch on. Takes too long to do stuff on them...

 

What truly has me worried is these stupid games.

Like this Fly to Kuma

https://www2.oculus.com/experiences/app/1026362144104451/

 

And Lucky's Tale

https://www2.oculus.com/experiences/app/909129545868758/

 

You gotta be $% kidding! These are like games for an 8 year old to play on an iPad. You're going to sell these to someone with a GTX970 and a $600 headset. To play teddy bear games?! WTF?

 

Yeah VR is dead if this is the kind of game that you get with it.

 

Sharp, can you say CONSOLE? That's where you'll find these games .... Those that are generally serious about Sims (not THE Sims either) can't afford this stuff.

Oh I plan on using one for Architecture. I can see that for certain.

 

The average PC gamer is 38 years old and has a median income of $69,000

What person in that demographic is going to buy a teddy bear game?

 

Well now I know I got off the gravy train WAY too soon. I don't make any where that much a year. But I wont embarrass myself by saying how much. And no, I'm not into Teddy Bear Games ....

 

Chief 

[SharpeXB]

What's disturbing is that Lucky's Tale is actually bundled with the Rift. Both of those kiddie games are Rift exclusives, not console ports.

That represents some decision making that's incredibly out of touch with the world. This device is not selling to 8-year old girls. Maybe Mark Zuckerberg likes pink teddy bears?

My PC hardware has come bundled with titles like Battlefield 4, Mass Effect 3, Far Cry 4. Games that actually appeal to someone who's a typical PC gamer. A GTX970 today comes with Tom Clancy's The Division, not Candy Crush. Shocker.

So Oculus doesn't even understand who their market is. Without good games for these devices they will fail.

Edited April 21, 2016 by SharpeXB

[TG-55Panthercules]

Hey Sharpe - maybe Oculus is counting on all those 38-year-old PC Gamers making $69,000 to buy Rifts for their 8 year old daughters so they can justify the expense  to their wives 

[SharpeXB]

Hey Sharpe - maybe Oculus is counting on all those 38-year-old PC Gamers making $69,000 to buy Rifts for their 8 year old daughters so they can justify the expense  to their wives 

Yeah could be. You might be on to something. But hey honey the kids will love it!

[Toxin1]

It comes with Eve Valkyrie, not a teddy bear game.  Also, you can play Elite Dangerous and DCS as has been raved about from the early adopters already.  So not sure why all the doom and gloom about VR. Its already driving the tech on the high res screen and GPU side and likely CPU as well.  Its a major disruptive tech, like the iPhone. 

[BeastyBaiter]

I think it's too early to tell how it will work out. Right now it has the issue of being absurdly expensive and it isn't just the device's price that's the problem. To make OR work in DCS, the minimum GPU spec is somewhere around a GTX 980 TI (970 won't manage) and it won't offer anywhere near a flawless experience because a 980TI can't give a steady 90 FPS at the OR's resolution. Additionally, an OR is a piss poor substitute for a traditional monitor the instant you decide to browse the web, read an email or type something up. So it isn't like you're replacing a $250 monitor with it, you still need the monitor. And that's the biggest difference between something like an OR and a 3d monitor. The 3d monitor is good for everything, the OR is good for a handful of video games and nothing else. Considering the +$1000 price tag over a traditional gaming PC combined with very limited usefulness, mass appeal just isn't there. It's just too expensive even for the glorious PC master race. If OR and other VR devices collapse their prices to below the $300 mark and mid grade gaming GPU's start being able to handle it, then it may takeoff. But unless both things happen very quickly, I think Facebook and the others are going to lose interest. It won't necessarily be because they aren't profitable, but because they won't be profitable enough compared to other things they could invest in.

 

Time will tell which way things go.

Edited April 21, 2016 by King_Hrothgar

[Brano]

I'm too old school for this VR witchcraft anyway :D

[SharpeXB]

It comes with Eve Valkyrie, not a teddy bear game.

 

Nope, just Lucky the Fox

[GrendelsDad]

Oh I plan on using one for Architecture. I can see that for certain.

 

The average PC gamer is 38 years old and has a median income of $69,000

What person in that demographic is going to buy a teddy bear game?

 

What I have gained from this conversation...I am seriously underpaid!!!

[Brano]

What I have gained from this conversation...I am seriously underpaid!!!

Same here :D

[71st_AH_Hooves]

I've tried both, and had extensive use with the vive. It's an Amazing experience, but has drawbacks. The cables mainly but non of the drawbacks for me were in the visual or immersion. Those were unbeleivable. We're the experiences the best? No, but the potential is through the roof. I'm still waiting for a good shooter, and also someone to solve the locomotion issue with out a 500$ omni directional treadmill.

[Irgendjemand]

Nope, just Lucky the Fox

Not true. Valkyrie comes bundeled for ALL preorders.

I played it already and the collegue - whose rift it was i played on - did not pay for it.

[SharpeXB]

Ok to clarify that statistic, that's "household income" of $69,000 US. Not invividual.

The median US figure for that same year was $53,600. So gamers are still above the average by a good measure.

The stats on men and women are interesting too. 49% are women although they're mostly in the "Casual" category.

The "Heavy Core" that spends the most money is mainly men. That's your typical Oculus purchaser.

 

https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/37-percent-of-us-population-age-9-and-older-currently-plays-pc-games/

 

But Panth is totally on to something right. See the Oculus is probably the most spouse adverse piece of consumer electronics ever launched. So they packaged a wife friendly game with it to help ease the acceptance. I see how that works... ;-)

Not true. Valkyrie comes bundeled for ALL preorders.

I played it already and the collegue - whose rift it was i played on - did not pay for it.

I know that, it might have been just with the preorders. I though both games came with it too. But now it looks like just Lucky

[taildraggernut]

I know that, it might have been just with the preorders. I though both games came with it too. But now it looks like just Lucky

 

No, pre-orders definitely come with EVE Valkyrie, it says on my pre order, you seem a bit keen to downgrade everyone's expectations.

[FuriousMeow]

No, pre-orders definitely come with EVE Valkyrie, it says on my pre order, you seem a bit keen to downgrade everyone's expectations.

 

That's exactly what he said. Currently it does not appear to have EVE Valkyrie, just the pre-orders did.

 

I'm waiting until Gen 3 of VR. The pixel density isn't there yet, and by then graphics cards and memory subsystems (HBM2 - 16GB single card) will be significantly faster which will make the experience better. The price is too high for a single device that is essentially still a tech demo.

Edited April 21, 2016 by FuriousMeow

[taildraggernut]

That is still a subjective oppinion, the tech demos were the development kits, the consumer release is simply 1st generation, sceptics predictably are less than enthusiastic of it's current capabilities while the typical first time user is being quite impressed.

 

Not sure what Mr SharpeXB's point is all about to be honest, bundled games have little to no relevance to the target audience, I'm sure the little fox game is quite fun for any age group and there is no obligation to bundle software with any piece of hardware and is usually a promotional thing for new release.

[JG27_Chivas]

Lucky's tale is an inhouse Oculus development they are giving away.  Eve Valkyrie, a third party development, was given away free for most of the first preorders.    The Oculus headsets are sold near cost, to make the first consumer version  available to as many people as possible.  Oculus has stated they plan to recoup most of their investment over the years thru the sale of VR content.   Bundles will have little to no impact on the future of VR.  Gaming is initially driving VR sales, but will just be a small subset of VR's future.

[Cyph3r]

Wow this forum seems really disconnected from the VR world. I've been using the Rift since the DK1 and there's no doubt in my mind that this will be the future. 

 

To people who say it's too expensive, most gaming PCs are what like £700/$1000+? And also the fact we're on a forum for a sim. Heck I've spent about £700/$1000 just on my current flight sim controller setup and I use that just for literally 2 games. 

 

And I don't get why people are complaining about Luckeys Tale. It's free to anyone who installs Oculus Home. Eve Valkryie also came free with pre-orders. But Luckeys Tale is a great addition as VR in FPS games tend make some people quite nauseous, the third person camera is very comfortable and it's simple gameplay appeals to a MUCH wider variety of people (even non-gamers). It harks back to Super Mario 64. It's very enjoyable and it shows how flexible the VR platform is. If you hate it that much just don't play it. There are plenty of other more serious games for you grumps. 

Edited April 22, 2016 by Cyph3r

[BeastyBaiter]

My PC tower cost $800 to build, the monitor is $150 and I have $450 of flight sim specific controllers. The keyboard and speakers are from the stone age since those never break and my mouse cost about $50. Add it all up, and that's $1450 USD. An OR + GTX980TI to run it would add $1200 USD to the above price tag and replace nothing but the $250 GPU's I normally run and TIR5 ($150). End result: $1450 vs $2250. That's a 55% increase in overall price on what is already a fairly high end gaming machine. Given the nature of OR, I would also be forced into buying the ultra premium GPU's in the future too as a GTX980TI wouldn't be sufficient for more than a year. So there is a recurring cost increase there too.

 

Don't kid yourself, OR is an exceptionally expensive gaming peripheral and has little appeal in mainstream gaming (CoD, BF, MMO's, Minecraft, Candy Crush and so on).

[Urra]

Oh I plan on using one for Architecture. I can see that for certain.

 

The average PC gamer is 38 years old and has a median income of $69,000

What person in that demographic is going to buy a teddy bear game?

oh yea!!! Teddy Bears how awesome! (Sarcastically repeated in my head over and over)

[coconut]

OR is an exceptionally expensive gaming peripheral and has little appeal in mainstream gaming

So far it seems the device is very popular with non-gamers. It's more the regular gamers who are wondering if it's worth it. People who play to gather virtual points or to increase their KDR have no use for VR. People who are after an experience will be eating pasta until they have saved enough money to buy a VR set.

 

 

Wow this forum seems really disconnected from the VR world

Coming from the outside, the flightsim crowd in general is a bit odd, I would say. The amount of negativity against anything new or different you see on the forums sometimes is almost comical to watch.

Edited April 22, 2016 by coconut

[saunder]

I don't understand this issue on cost, it costs the same as a good gaming graphics card or 3 monitors and a trackir or even worse still one good quality monitor. I use the Oculus for ww2 combat flying in DCS it is awesome adds immersion and everything else that's missing in flight simulation. I use a standard gaming setup it works with no issues. I took the whole setup to Cosford Flight sim show and so many people tried it out  young and old the first thing everyone of them said was "where can I get one"

 

I could not go back to using a monitor if you have not tried it then see if you can get a try of one and believe me you won't look back. If anyone lives anywhere near the South West UK and want's to try it out give me a shout your welcome to have a go....

[BeastyBaiter]

So far it seems the device is very popular with non-gamers. It's more the regular gamers who are wondering if it's worth it. People who play to gather virtual points or to increase their KDR have no use for VR. People who are after an experience will be eating pasta until they have saved enough money to buy a VR set.

 

 

Coming from the outside, the flightsim crowd in general is a bit odd, I would say. The amount of negativity against anything new or different you see on the forums sometimes is almost comical to watch.

 

Probably true on both points. About a month ago I attended a small seminar/recruitment drive led by the CEO of a small company that makes training software for industrial facilities (refineries mostly, but other stuff too). They have fully embraced VR as a training tool and what they've done with VR devices is both impressive and quite practical. The thing is, OR is just one of many devices they use. Their main device is actually a pair of glasses (sort of like google glass) that cost about $10k per unit if memory serves and are not intended for consumer use. As for gaming, I would like an OR like device, but as I've said repeatedly, the price is way, way too high at the moment. The flight sim crowd is generally willing to pay a bit more of course, and I'm sure we have a bit more cash on hand than the average CoD player. But there are limits of what players are willing and able to spend. As already said, I have $450+ worth of flight sim specific controllers, so I'm clearly I'm not one to skimp on gear here. But an extra $600 for 1 peripheral + a GPU twice as expensive as I normally buy to run it just isn't reasonable to me. I'm sure the price will come down with time, but the question is will it come down fast enough to get widespread adoption within the sim crowd (not just flight sims, but racing and ARMA too) before FB and the others decide the whole thing was a waste of resources.

 

In regards to the flight sim community, yes, there does tend to be a lot of negativity and general rejection of new things. In the case of VR, I don't think any of us argue against it. The benefits are too obvious for that. The issue is purely that of pricing and possibly reliability and comfort. Our venom towards new things is generally directed at game design (not to be confused with dumbing down or realism) and sometimes even interface, strange as that one is.

Edited April 22, 2016 by King_Hrothgar

[SharpeXB]

Very few people have a PC with the specs to run a Rift or Vive.

Although it's encouraging that PC games sales are surpassing consoles.

 

"With the PC being at the cutting edge of hardware it can only get better if VR takes off. There are a number of competing platforms for VR, most of them will combine with the muscle of a modern PC to offer the fastest, slickest virtual reality experience to consumers"

 

http://m.hexus.net/gaming/news/industry/83972-pc-games-sales-eclipse-value-console-games-sales-2016/

[ER*Wumme]

Hey texanian SharpeXB,

excuse my bad english..

VR is not dead , it begins to live and will grow more and more, despite  your theoretical negative  explanations.

 

if you dònt wanna get a VR like vive or oculus, no one forces you to buy such a thing.   D  o  you   think you must be a great  P R O P H E T , if  VR failes  or not.     That is  of no interest.

 

Ive  got a oculus rift C V 1 from a backer and playing     DCS     nearly 4-5 hours . yes it is not cheap , but a  samsung  S 6 or S 7 ???

Do you play this DCS- Simulation with VR ?? . It is  fantastic and a great  new  experience. It is compared  the step from Radio to Television and the game runs wonderful on my PC

[saunder]

I have read a lot of the replies to the review that this thread is based on and I get the feeling that most of the negative comments are from people who have never even tried VR and the comment regarding pixels anything like that soon becomes unnoticeable as your brain makes the adjustments, the tracking is almost faultless far better than trackir and going back to the pixels being noticeable I would rather have that and looking into a detailed cockpit than a picture on a square box with a wall behind it there is no contest there. I also think that it is the fact that a lot of flightsim enthusiasts have some very nice setups that they are in danger of them being obsolete I have some very nice gear (see attached pics) the tornado throttle module is for flying anything not just a tornado and its not finished yet but back to the subject I will still use them with VR and if that changed I would not hesitate to let them go rather than not use VR and they have taken me 3 years to assemble... Flying WW2 combat in DCS with VR is an absolutely amazing experience.

 

[DigitalEngine]

I'm doing DCS World at 90fps with a HTC Vive and very much loving it!! Not even gonna think of going back to a monitor, never, ever again!! Basically monitors are dead and finished as we know them... 

15,000 units sold in 10 minutes at $800 a pop, man I wish I could fall into a failure like that!! I'd be set for life (as a failure that is, which I could live with), and I wouldn't even have to work anymore....

Edited April 23, 2016 by DigitalEngine

[SharpeXB]

I'm doing DCS World at 90fps with a HTC Vive and very much loving it!!

DCS only gets that level of performance in views without lots of objects. Just like this game. Both games likely need an upgrade to DX12 in order to get really ideal performance in VR. Even in DX11 too much of the rendering runs through the CPU.

I don't even get a constant 90fps in either game with the specs below on a monitor.

[unreasonable]

My wonder about VR is how the player is supposed to manage to the various button presses that are necessary to operate interface and plane when vision is blocked by a VR set. (That is I assume it is fully blocked - I have not tried VR myself).

 

I can see that the basic flight controls of stick, rudder and throttle are done by feel alone, but there are various keyboard commands or button presses that are needed in a flight as well - how does a player in VR manage these?

[216th_Lucas_From_Hell]

From what I've gathered the Vive has a see-through function using a camera, while the Rift has a gap on the bottom that you can peek through.

 

It's good to have articles defining ways major technologies can fail. It's a sign that people understand the possible limitations and pitfalls ahead, meaning they can take action to prevent this.

 

I'm positive we will ser more refined VR in two years time, in formats that are more accessible, less demanding and also more practical.

[saunder]

DCS only gets that level of performance in views without lots of objects. Just like this game. Both games likely need an upgrade to DX12 in order to get really ideal performance in VR. Even in DX11 too much of the rendering runs through the CPU.

I don't even get a constant 90fps in either game with the specs below on a monitor.

 

I am getting a superb performance with very reasonable graphics settings in DCS since the last update the performance as leapt forward. I was surprised as how much it improved on performance I have flown a variety of aircraft and combat with the bf109 and p51 not a single glitch or judder.