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Just how many of us are there?

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The cost of development must run into a fair amount of cash, i heard CLOD spent 7 mill, but i can't see this development team spending anywhere near that sort of money in 14 months, but it got me thinking, how many units do 777/1C have to sell to make a profit?

 

Also this got me wondering how many of us flight simmers there are out there in the market for a very good CFS?

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The cost of development must run into a fair amount of cash, i heard CLOD spent 7 mill, but i can't see this development team spending anywhere near that sort of money in 14 months, but it got me thinking, how many units do 777/1C have to sell to make a profit?

 

Also this got me wondering how many of us flight simmers there are out there in the market for a very good CFS?

 

CLOD spend 8 786 987 $

 

777/1C has to sell 25601,6 game copys to make profit

 

there is 789,5 flightsimers on market

 

data from NSA, from 02.08.2013

 

 

 

 

:)

 

I hope you dont beleve youll ever get the numbers you wont

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Of course we wont know the actual numbers, more just looking for opinions.

There's enough folks out there who buy and then enough who eventually buy that if, over the life of the product, they can begin to make a profit then its doing well. I'm sure some serious cash was sunk into the IL-2 and IL-2 Forgotten Battles development but from there on it was a fairly cheap thing to pay some folks to build more content. I can't see it being expensive. So once that initial tech base was available it went from there. Battle of Stalingrad uses an established tech base as well... although with some serious work being done anyways.

 

I think they will turn a profit. It may not be in the first week of sales like a Call of Duty title... but I think they will. And they will continue to make money off of it.

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500 total

 

5 who like airplanes

 

495 who like to argue about everything related to them

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6 who like airplanes and I hope those other sorts are long gone....don't miss that at all

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hehe, well, there were 3 pilots in the ROF full real syndicate server and 15 in the fantasy circus server today.

 

Not much interest there - now.. the number of people that own ROF and paid for planes... who knows  :)

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500 total

 

5 who like airplanes

 

495 who like to argue about everything related to them

 

 

Brilliant, made me laugh, next thing we`ll have is a flamer about the correct modelling of Luftwaffe issue underpants if a German bails out and his trousers are ripped off in the wind, then we`ll have a flamer about the incorrect modelling of his trousers being ripped off.

 

I hope there`s a market, we`ve been waiting long enough for a quality succesor, CloD is getting there but how far can it actually go, BoS deserves a chance lets all stop the arguing and start supporting.

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Not withstandind CLOD, I would hazard a guess and say that a VERY large percentage of the original (IL2 through to the1946) version players will end up with BoS. Even outside of the forums, IL2 had a massive following (including real life pilots from the local airport I used to fly from, most of who heard about it originally, (and then updates) by word of mouth).

 

Once some of these non forum users get to hear about it from those that do (use the forums) - especially after they (forum users) start playing it- I think there will be a secondary later rush to buy.

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well I know that every one is very worried about this sim, i.e. the reason everyone asking what the sales numbers are like. I just hope they get what they need so we can continue this IL2: Sturmovik!

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S!

 

 I hope a lot will be interested in BoS. It has a lot of promise in it and supporting it will just expand it to be even better. So keep spreading the word. That is what I do :biggrin:  Anyone who just cares to listen will be guided here by me :lol:  Crazy? Maybe. But all for the flight simming.

Edited by Flanker35M

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Honestly, how much money they make is going to be tied to distribution and marketing efforts. If they put some money behind marketing and sell the game on Steam, it will probably do a lot better than if they rely on Youtube videos and their own servers to distribute.

 

For the OP's question, there are a little over 6,100 people registered on this forum. I think it's a sure bet they will sell at least that many copies (if only because if some people here don't buy it others will). As I said above, the exact number relies on far too many variables we don't know. My guess is if they market it well and put it on Steam they could sell over 100,000 copies. If they suck it up in marketing or it's broken like CloD, it'll barely break 10,000.

Edited by Crow

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Jason has already state there won't be any sales figures posted - at least in an answer to a question posed by a forum member, asking about pre-order sales.

 

I would certainly bet it will be on Steam , others are following suit - DCS World, even 777's own ROF.

I understand as it will give them a lot more exposure to a much larger base.

 

While I have no knowledge of this, my guess would be the WWII combat sim genre, is if not one of the largest, perhaps the largest in flight simming. It has such an appeal, because it was not so long ago that a lot of folks know next to nothing about it without doing a lot of reading, several movies have been made about it, there are even still survivors of it - although that group is getting smaller with each passing year.

 

I imagine all 1C/777 has to do to be a great success, is provide a great sim. I certainly think there are still enough of us - flight simmers with a great interest in WWII combat - to help make it a great success.

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Brilliant, made me laugh, next thing we`ll have is a flamer about the correct modelling of Luftwaffe issue underpants if a German bails out and his trousers are ripped off in the wind, then we`ll have a flamer about the incorrect modelling of his trousers being ripped off.

 

I hope there`s a market, we`ve been waiting long enough for a quality succesor, CloD is getting there but how far can it actually go, BoS deserves a chance lets all stop the arguing and start supporting.

 

Probably shouldn't use flamer and the ripping off of pants in the same sentence.  Just saying :P

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"While I have no knowledge of this, my guess would be the WWII combat sim genre, is if not one of the largest, perhaps the largest in flight simming. It has such an appeal, because it was not so long ago that a lot of folks know next to nothing about it without doing a lot of reading, several movies have been made about it, there are even still survivors of it - although that group is getting smaller with each passing year."

 

In history of human conflict the WW Ii was unique affair where single person plus tool or machine could have decisive influence on outcome of engagement, In addition that war was a first to get full media coverage from every possible angle.

And please don't go Sparta at Marathon on me because we have no clue what Persian version of the battle was.

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if one looks at ROF, its a smaller genre than WW2, and ROF is doing well. If this game is "the awesome" for our genre, it'll work and have a run like IL-2 original did. 

 

 

If we can look at the original shots of the game, to the latest videos (well not including the cinematic), the quality goes from ROF range to almost CLOD range (graphics wise). This dev crew knows how to push their engine. 

 

And new releases (hoping) should have features that will blow out the competing sims (like weather modeling) or cover theaters like spanish civil war / korea . . . 

 

 

 

 

---

 

getting an accurate count is hard from forum usage / stats. I know lots of dudes in SIM HQ would be quick to get this game (if it ran well on most pc's) but would never post in ubi, here or banana or any ww2 sim, outside of sim hq. 

 

And some people they just read the forums but don't register or post. 

 

---

 

/sarc on

 

If the single thing that will sell the current incarnation of the game is the FW-190. I'd bet if the  only way would be to get it in this game (it would be in the sequels that are theater appropriate) would be to get the premium, the forums would crash due to the rage of some members.  

 

Then once the complainers ragequit, they'd have so many orders.  .  .. 

 

or if they made a luft special edition with the FW-190 in it . . . 

 

/sarc off

 

:D 

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Steam almost guarantees mass exposure, didn`t the old CloD forum have a post from an executive once where a marketing man was banging on about the lack of sales from retail outlets (shops) and the guy he was talking to said "we`ve sold 30 copies on Steam whilst you`ve been talking". Steam is massive, imo BoS would benefit greatly from Steam. Just my own opinion I`m not in the know or anything.

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Steam almost guarantees mass exposure, didn`t the old CloD forum have a post from an executive once where a marketing man was banging on about the lack of sales from retail outlets (shops) and the guy he was talking to said "we`ve sold 30 copies on Steam whilst you`ve been talking". Steam is massive, imo BoS would benefit greatly from Steam. Just my own opinion I`m not in the know or anything.

 

This is true; I often browse Steam's store, even though I have too many games to play as it is! I've lost track of the number of games I've bought on Steam because they've been on sale and either sound good, or have been highly rated but aren't necessarily my cup of tea.

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Here's a flight simmer number for you

 

3 million

 

That's how many players War Thunder claims have registered to play their game. I struggle to believe it, but if true, there's plenty of those who would be hard core simmers.

 

quote

 

Pilots!

 

Today we have more than 3 million people who registered in War Thunder . The interest to the game is growing each day. We are greatful for your attention and support.

 

From 27th of July 6am GMT (26th of July 11pm PDT) to 29th of July 6am GMT (28th of July 11pm PDT) War Thunder presents weekend special!

 

50% special discount for a year's premium account

30% special discount for 90 days premium account

10% special discount for 30 days premium account

Premium will bring 200% more lions for active actions in the game

x5 experience bonus for the first victory

30% special discount for purchase price and repair costs for the following aircraft:

P-39N-0, P-39Q-5,B-25-1, B-25J-20, F6F, Bf.109F-4

Bf.109E-3, Bf.109F-4, Fw.190A-5, Do.217N-1, Ju-87G-2, He.111H-16, La-5FN

MiG-3-15, Yak-1Б, La-5FN IL-2M, Pe-2-359, Yer-2 Ach-30B, P-39K-1

Spitfire Mk.II, Spitfire Mk.Vb, Beaufighter Mk.21, Tempest Mk.V,Hellcat F Mk.I,

A6M2, A6M3, Ki-61-1a, Ki-61-1b, Ki-61-1c, Ki-45 hei, Fw.190A-5

 

 

H

Edited by heinkill

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Yeah, yeah. I'm one of those "3 million" because I have an account, but I haven't played in months.

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Yes, would be more interesting to know how many active players there are, considering the game is free to try and you have to register to download.

 

Last time I was in there, several months ago, I couldn't find any live players to play full real battles with, only AI bots.

 

H

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I just use War Thunder in arcade mode as a fps with ww2 planes - I can't imagine it has anything to offer for the more serious flight simmers. But maybe it attracts a few new pilots who switch to BoS for a deeper flight experience :)

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I'm a registered war-thunder player and I canned it as soon as I realised how arcade it is, how next to nobody was playing the full-real no-icon mode and how I'd have to either grind a very long time or pay to win.

 

Three million is pure BS. If they had three million people paying to play they'd not be banging on about it (trying to get more), their yaps would be firmly closed while they spent their loot on Porche 911s.

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The biggest single market for original IL2 was Russia.

 

I suspect that will hold true once again.  Back in the day I remember hearing rumors of  less than one million copies of the sim were sold world wide.

Europe as a whole was the second largest buyer and my country, the US, was a very distant third.

 

One of the BlitzPigs is from Brazil and a former member of their big squad and he said that they estimated less than 100 copies sold in that country.

 

We are a very small number.

 

It's a wonder and a miracle that game publishers bother with us at all.

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Yeah, I've got a hard time beliving those WT numbers too. I bet alot of them are (if even true) just registered accounts, possibly quite many from the gold selling scammers as its an MMO with all that follows such.
I take a spin in it a few times a week for the lack of anything else WW2 related atm and I've never seen more then 35k players online at any one time.

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Yes, would be more interesting to know how many active players there are, considering the game is free to try and you have to register to download.

 

Last time I was in there, several months ago, I couldn't find any live players to play full real battles with, only AI bots.

 

H

 

Yes I agree... Besides... as we all know many simmers are a finnicky lot.. Many of us have a hard time admitting when we were wrong about something and maintain loyalty.. sometimes almost rabid loyalty to a product long past it's proven worthiness. Just look at how many people stuck with some other sims that I shall not mention even though IL2 was clearly a superior product. I remember when PF came out and I went to the CFS2 boards at SOH just to say "Hey there is a new Pacific sim out check it out!!" and I got creamed over there... Needless to say within about two years I was seeing most of the CFS 2 crowd on HL..

 

Folks probably registered there in the hopes that it would amount to something because as great as IL2 is still, like me many others have been hungry for a next generation product since around 2006 give or take. So far every product that has come down the pike has hinted at scratching that itch but none of them have and none was more disappointing than CoD because it had so much promise attached to it.. more than anything that has come after it.. or since IL2. 

 

The biggest single market for original IL2 was Russia.

 

I suspect that will hold true once again.  Back in the day I remember hearing rumors of  less than one million copies of the sim were sold world wide.

Europe as a whole was the second largest buyer and my country, the US, was a very distant third.

 

One of the BlitzPigs is from Brazil and a former member of their big squad and he said that they estimated less than 100 copies sold in that country.

 

We are a very small number.

 

It's a wonder and a miracle that game publishers bother with us at all.

 

Yes .. I think that is why FB was launched .. to tap into that other market and I think that 1CGS is aware of this and will move to a theater that will support more western participation in either the next theater or the one after that to tap into that market.. They can always go back to Russia at anytime and once other theaters are seeded they can start to water those seeds and broaden from there... At least that's my theory.. I have no clue what the bigger plan is.. I just know that once again that itch has the potential to be scratched.. and really really good this time..  and it looks more promising this time than at any other time in the past 10 years.. With all those other products that have come and gone as far as being realistically viable options for a fully supported from the ground up next gen sim for serious simmers (I  think a serious simmer is just one who cares more about the fidelity of the sim as far as it's DMs, FMs immerison factors etc.. than just flying around and shooting stuff..). The stated expectations and goals of the developers, the information they have put out as that plan develops up to and including the pre order program that was on time with the stated schedule and  the quality of that information all indicate that finally ... that itch will be scratched. The future looks bright. ;)

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agreed - this group is starting with their base customers in the Eastern Front - Great Patriotic War

 

it should not take too long, once everyone realizes the quality of the product, to have a theatre opened up for some increased western interest, the Med makes the most sense in this regard

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well I know that every one is very worried about this sim, i.e. the reason everyone asking what the sales numbers are like. I just hope they get what they need so we can continue this IL2: Sturmovik!

Im not worried. ROF was success. And BOS is WW2 which means more audience. Im worried what will be in a few years if devs "dreams to bring realistic simulator and true succesor of il2 46" twist over to another theatre (Vietnam?) like it happened during ROF development. That is, when certain things are not finished and fixed...which are a must for MP, if we dont want to see small numbers on servers..

Edited by Tvrdi

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agreed - this group is starting with their base customers in the Eastern Front - Great Patriotic War

 

it should not take too long, once everyone realizes the quality of the product, to have a theatre opened up for some increased western interest, the Med makes the most sense in this regard

I have my fingers crossed for exactly that outcome!

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We are a very small number.

 

It's a wonder and a miracle that game publishers bother with us at all.

Yup, that^

prop fighter sims are a rarity in this market. yet a hard core group. Who would have thought IL2 would have lasted as long as it did?

If this latest, greatest, particular sim is to be successful, it will be expensive. Or short lived. 

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I will be happy that there is a new flight sim on the market.

I fly Clod with no hassle and it is good.

But if the developers can offer me something better enhanced than what I have

I will be there.

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If you want actual hard numbers on the simulation market, Ubisoft had announced a few months back that the entire Silent Hunter line from SH1 to SH5 had shipped a combined total of 1,500,000 units, which number includes expansion packs.

 

Informed speculation from sources in the industry was that SH3 had sold 200-300,000 units and SH4 100-200,000 units. Now the submarine/naval sim market is not the same as the flight sim market, but it gives you a rough idea.

 

On the challenges of making a flight sim, you had this recent post by TK, owner and lead developper of Third Wire, makers of the Third Wire flight sims:

 

 

Guys, we appreciate all your input, but please stop making it so personal. Its not about what I want, its about what we can afford. If we don't finish EXP3, its not because I don't want to, or I somehow hate you, or I'm hurt, or anything else personal like that, its simply because we don't have the money do so.

Threads like this remind us why we don't post here anymore. I know you guys have short selective memory, but there was a time not too long ago when we used to post here often and even in other forums, but every time we do, threads like this come up and remind us how terrible idea that is.

When we talk about future plans, its about what we would like to do if we have the money. Its never a promise of anything. We never promised EXP3, only that we'd love to do EXP3, if EXP2 and SF2NA did well.

Even though SF2NA is our best seller so far, and EXP2 is selling better than EXP1, SF2NA and EXP2 haven't recovered their investment yet - they sold about 25% more than their predecessors, but they also cost about 200% more. All those features everyone was requesting here added significantly to the cost but didn't result in matching increase in sales. So the money from PC sales are still going toward paying back all the debts we've incurred during their development. We had to take out loans, max out credit cards, sell our cars, empty our retirement accounts, and we are still falling behind in rents and payments. If it wasn't for the mobile games, we would've been out of business last year and be homeless by now.

Cost of developing games are constantly going up. SF2 aircraft, for example, cost more than 4x the SF1 aircraft. And our market size is not expanding at a similar rate. It's not rocket science to figure out that at some point, the cost to develop gets higher than they sell. Looking back, EXP1 was about where it crossed that line for us. So not only we don't have the money to finish EXP3, but we already know for sure that EXP3 will lose money. It has to be paid for by something else.

Luckily, mobile games are doing very well so far - we are just getting started there and we already have over 1.2 million downloads combined. A single one day download of one mobile game often exceed the total, life-long downloads of all our PC games combined. And the cost to develop there still very low. So we are still planning to finish EXP3, but it'll be done if and when our mobile games make enough money to pay for it (well, after paying back all our debts first).

To answer to the original topic, of course we're still working on PC development, especially with Windows 8. But keep in mind that the direction we're going may not be what many of you want. We're working to make our game more accessible and easier to play to appeal to a bigger market, and rely more on in-app purchases for monetizing, which means less realistic features and less support for mods in the future. Again, it's nothing personal, its just what we can afford. And like you said, 13 years is a long time to be working on one thing, and it may be time we do something else, there are plenty of other genres of games that we'd love to work on (ones that doesn't cost so much to develop).

 

http://bbs.thirdwire.com/phpBB3w/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9420&p=59528#p59528

 

Another thing to keep in mind, again based on publicly available info, PC games make up only about 9% of the total market (this is from Ubisoft's financial statements), the rest is all consoles.

Edited by 2Lt_Joch
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If you click on the Members tab, there are 320 pages of registered names at 20 to a page.  That's 6400 people so far.  For every one of those there are say (at a very conservative estimate) 10 unregistered people who watch the forums without taking part.

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If you want actual hard numbers on the simulation market, Ubisoft had announced a few months back that the entire Silent Hunter line from SH1 to SH5 had shipped a combined total of 1,500,000 units, which number includes expansion packs.

 

Informed speculation from sources in the industry was that SH3 had sold 200-300,000 units and SH4 100-200,000 units. Now the submarine/naval sim market is not the same as the flight sim market, but it gives you a rough idea.

 

On the challenges of making a flight sim, you had this recent post by TK, owner and lead developper of Third Wire, makers of the Third Wire flight sims:

 

 

http://bbs.thirdwire.com/phpBB3w/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9420&p=59528#p59528

 

Another thing to keep in mind, again based on publicly available info, PC games make up only about 9% of the total market (this is from Ubisoft's financial statements), the rest is all consoles.

 

 

Wow.. that should be required reading for every serious simmer  ...  Very sobering. :mellow:

 

Especially this part..

 

But keep in mind that the direction we're going may not be what many of you want. We're working to make our game more accessible and easier to play to appeal to a bigger market, and rely more on in-app purchases for monetizing, which means less realistic features and less support for mods in the future. Again, it's nothing personal, its just what we can afford. And like you said, 13 years is a long time to be working on one thing, and it may be time we do something else, there are plenty of other genres of games that we'd love to work on (ones that doesn't cost so much to develop).

 

Which immediately brought WT to mind..

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+1 ^

Games like world of tanks, world of airplanes, mechwarrior etc...not realistic, BUT  "free to play",  really means pay to win.... sadness, but -reality are those are who will keep paying  for games (its only a few bucks a week, like eating out) and will keep that income stream trickling in (stats indicate gamers wont pay fifty for a game, but will wind up paying almost 200 a year in various "things")   vs. a 70 dollar game with some promised updates. 

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This game will have an uphill battle at least initially.

 

Too many people were stung by CloD and wont take that pre order jump again. I count myself in that field.

 

Still if post release the player feedback is favourable I may take that plunge but not before.....

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I can remember an article on the internet about the succes of the original IL-2; 200.000 copies sold. I do not know about ROF, but this game has mores sales per user due to the additionals you can purchase. Silent Hunter III the best in the series, sold about 200.000-300.000 copies. This is also simulation which also sells on a niche market.

 

The ROF marketing strategie was to sell additionals to the current users. This is logic if you have to deal with niche market.

 

By what I have seen and know now I forecast that IL-2 BOS can sell about 300.000 copies. With additions to this copies the company can raise extra sales what secures my favourite hobby; WWII flight sim. Let us hope.

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