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raaaid

how to get an advanatage in a one to 3 gamble using cartomancy

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lets suppose the prize is the number 1 and the 2 and 3 goats

 

you take ten cards and divide it in two halves of 5 and pick one

 

your chance to get the price in your pick is one half

 

but that bet will cost you 1.5 bucks because on average of 3 cards there will be 1.5 in your pick since its a half pick of 3

 

so half the times on average you lose 1.5 euro and half the times you win 2

 

so whats wrong with this?

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Ok so I did a brute force on your game as I understood it. You pick 5 cards out of a pool of 10 which contains 3 prices. You get a dollar for each winner in the 5 you picked. In 1'000'002 simulated games I got 374'381times 1, 376'340 times 2 and 125'030 times 3 giving me a value of 1'502'151 dollars. This makes an average win of 1.502147996 dollars per game. So roughly the calculated 1.5 now if your goal is to just get at least one price and any overflow disappears I got to a chance of roughly 0.875749249 for winning a game means if the price is 1 dollar it would be worth 0.876… dollars to invest. Now since you brought out the goats why don't we extend this into a Monty-Hall problem. You have a pool of 10 with 3 prices, split it into 5 and then get the chance to pay the dealer to reveal either 0, 1 or 2 goats from your 5, how much would those options be worth.

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well i figured out a secret

 

casinos are an alternative to banks

 

imagine you want to buy a 10k car

 

you can ask a loan to a bank and risk get fired and then lose your hous for unpayment or

 

you can gamble 10 dollar for around 3 years for a 10k pot in a casino

 

but what is an even more secret

 

casinos pay you and edge of 2.9% playing blackjack with the basic startegy

 

i guess its worth for them just to have a casino full of people gambling and giving life

 

re:
pflag=0
dflag=0
doubleflag=0
bet=1

i=i+1
dealerhand=Math.GetRandomNumber(13)
 If dealerhand>10 Then
    dealerhand=10
  EndIf
If dealerhand=1 Then
dealerhand=11
 dflag=1
EndIf
If dealerhand=6 Or dealerhand=5 Or dealerhand=4 then

tope=12
ElseIf dealerhand=3then
  tope=13
elseif   dealerhand=2 then
  
  tope=13
ElseIf dealerhand=7    then
  
  tope=17
ElseIf dealerhand=8    then
  
  tope=17
elseif dealerhand=9 then
  
  tope=17
  elseif dealerhand=10  then
 
  tope=17
  elseif dealerhand=11 then
  
tope=17
endif

card1=Math.GetRandomNumber(13)
 If card1>10 Then
    card1=10
  EndIf
  If card1=1 Then
 card1=11
 pflag=1

EndIf
  card2=Math.GetRandomNumber(13)
  If card2>10 then
  card2=10
endif
If card2=1 Then
 card2=11
 pflag=1

EndIf
playerhand=card1+card2
If (playerhand=10 ) or (playerhand=11 ) or (playerhand=9 And dealerhand<7 And dealerhand>3 ) Then
bet=2
doubleflag=1
Goto skip
endif
If card1=11 and card2=11 And dealerhand<6 then

playerhand=11
doubleflag=1
Goto skip
endif

If (playerhand=18 And pflag=1 And dealerhand=6) Then
bet=2
doubleflag=1
Goto skip
endif
If (playerhand=17 And pflag=1 And dealerhand<7)and dealerhand<>2  Then
bet=2
doubleflag=1
Goto skip
endif
If (playerhand=16 Or playerhand=15) And pflag=1 And dealerhand<6and dealerhand>3  Then
bet=2
doubleflag=1
Goto skip
endif

if (playerhand=14 Or playerhand=13) And pflag=1 And dealerhand<6 and dealerhand>4 Then
bet=2
doubleflag=1
Goto skip
endif
doubleflag=0
skip:


If card1=6 and card2=6 And dealerhand<7 then

playerhand=6
bet=2
endif
If card1=7 and card2=7 And dealerhand<8 then

playerhand=7
bet=2
endif
If card1=8 and card2=8  then

playerhand=8
bet=2
endif

If card1=3 and card2=3 And (dealerhand=4 Or dealerhand=5 Or dealerhand=6) then

playerhand=3
bet=2
endif

If card1=9 and card2=9 And (dealerhand<>9 and dealerhand<>10 and dealerhand<>11) then

playerhand=9
bet=2
endif
If card1=2 and card2=2 And (dealerhand<7) then

playerhand=2
bet=2
endif

If (card1=10 and card2=11) or (card1=11 and card2=10) then
temp=Math.GetRandomNumber(13) 
If (dealerhand=11 and temp>9) or (temp=1 and dealerhand=10) then
  bob=bob+0
Goto re
endif

  bob=bob+1.5
Goto re
endif

player()
dealer()

If dealerhand>playerhand Or playerhand=0 then

bob=bob-bet
endif
If playerhand>dealerhand then
bob=bob+bet
endif
If Math.Remainder(i,1000)=0 then
TextWindow.WriteLine(bob+"*"+(bob/i)*100+" % * game number: "+i)
endif
Goto re

  Sub player


While playerhand<tope Or doubleflag=1
  card=Math.GetRandomNumber(13)
 If card>10 Then
    card=10
  EndIf
  If card=1 Then
 card=11
 pflag=1

EndIf
  playerhand=playerhand+card
  rep:
doubleflag=0
EndWhile

If playerhand>21 Then
  
   If pflag=1  Then
    playerhand=playerhand-10
    pflag=0

      Goto rep
 
  EndIf
playerhand=0
EndIf

EndSub

  

Sub dealer


While dealerhand<17 
  card=Math.GetRandomNumber(13)
 If card>10 Then
    card=10
  EndIf
  If card=1 Then
 card=11
 pflag=1

EndIf
dealerhand=dealerhand+card
rep2:
EndWhile

If dealerhand>21 Then
     If dflag=1 Then
    dealerhand=dealerhand-10
    dflag=0
    Goto rep2
  EndIf
dealerhand=0
EndIf

EndSub
 

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