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Why the World is Running Out of Pilots


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Good, once these greedy business will start lacking people, they will have to stop milking them. For me it's insane that to get a job you need to pay insane amount of money. And I feel most people who go there, do it as passion and could be actually a trap since like video said, they are in debt and are paid badly.

 

It's the same with many jobs, especially medical jobs in my country. On every hospital page there is big list of needed personnel. But no one wants to work for that kind of money. My paramedic school is 3 year university, money paramedics make is worst than people working in supermarkets as clerk... and then they wonder why people leave country or don't even start going into that, and no people to work. 

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I think it is a general problem as people nowadays are no more willing to pay fair prices - they want it cheap, anywhere at anytime and fast.

So, it is the consequence we all bear now. It's disgusting and the spiral goes down and down, until the whole system implodes.

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I know of a couple of pilots working on airliners that currently are reeducate themselves to engineers. They got fed up by a lot of  work-hours no free time and relative low payment compared to time away from home.  I think it is time to consider drones :)

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It's this way across a lot of industries. There seems to be a massive disconnect between the people running large companies and the actual labor market. Software developers are in the same situation. Companies have been complaining for years about the shortage, but they never seem to be willing to train people, hire fresh computer science graduates or offer more money. Sooner or later, they'll hit a breaking point. You either pay your skilled labor fair market wages, or you go out of business because you can't get the people you need to run it.

 

I suspect over the next 10-20 years the world will finally realize that the CEO of GE and similar companies are far more expendable than the engineers working there making 1/500th the salary. That doesn't mean the salary situation will reverse, but it will go to 1/50th pay instead of 1/500th maybe.

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4 hours ago, BraveSirRobin said:

The job of airline pilot probably won’t exist in 20-30 years.

 

In the purest sense yes.  In fact in most fully glass cockpits, pilots are flight monitors more than pilots now. But they will always be trained to take over and there will always be someone on the flight deck.

 

The biggest problem is the Asian market is opening faster than pilots can be trained and tend to offer both quick build up of hours and decent pay. It is draining the traditional markets of pilots willing to pack up and change their home base for a while. It’s a great deal for young pilots. Senior guys with families probably aren’t going to bite on it. JetBlue and some other companies are considering bringing back programs to train pilots from the ground up for a return on investment of X number of years with the airline. If the do, it is also good for the industry. If I wasn’t on the verge of early retirement, I’d consider it.

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18 minutes ago, II/JG17_HerrMurf said:

 

In the purest sense yes.  In fact in most fully glass cockpits, pilots are flight monitors more than pilots now. But they will always be trained to take over and there will always be someone on the flight deck.

 

The biggest problem is the Asian market is opening faster than pilots can be trained and tend to offer both quick build up of hours and decent pay. It is draining the traditional markets of pilots willing to pack up and change their home base for a while. It’s a great deal for young pilots. Senior guys with families probably aren’t going to bite on it. JetBlue and some other companies are considering bringing back programs to train pilots from the ground up for a return on investment of X number of years with the airline. If the do, it is also good for the industry. If I wasn’t on the verge of early retirement, I’d consider it.

 

In the future there will only be one crew member and a dog in the cockpit.  The crew member will monitor the flight computer.  The dog will be there to bite them if they try to touch anything.  

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3 hours ago, BeastyBaiter said:

It's this way across a lot of industries. There seems to be a massive disconnect between the people running large companies and the actual labor market. Software developers are in the same situation. Companies have been complaining for years about the shortage, but they never seem to be willing to train people, hire fresh computer science graduates or offer more money. Sooner or later, they'll hit a breaking point. You either pay your skilled labor fair market wages, or you go out of business because you can't get the people you need to run it.

 

I suspect over the next 10-20 years the world will finally realize that the CEO of GE and similar companies are far more expendable than the engineers working there making 1/500th the salary. That doesn't mean the salary situation will reverse, but it will go to 1/50th pay instead of 1/500th maybe.

 

Perhaps: but remember that in a globalized economy of free movement, the "fair market wages" are set by the wages requirement of everyone in the world who can do the job, not only the price of "native" labour.  Given that people with the required skill levels who live in a less developed country also expect to get some additional non-wage benefits from moving to a more developed country (such as rule of law, future career openings etc), they are prepared to take far lower wages - and often work much harder too. So it is not surprising that the wages of skilled jobs in developed economies have been hard hit.  

 

Corporate  "complaining about the shortage" does not mean that they are actually complaining about a shortage, since they know that there is none: they are really lobbying for more open access to the world pool of a particular skill in order to keep wages down.  And it is not just the private sector that does this: the UK's NHS has got away with suppressing the earnings of medical professionals for years - and members of the armed forces - because they know that the wages on offer are still attractive to qualified people from less developed countries. 

 

As for corporate managers' compensation: the trend to higher ratios will slow; it cannot continue to expand forever, but I very much doubt that it will revert to old ratios: as long as the shareholders who control corporations believe that the profits growth a top manager will bring are worth the money, managers with a track record are going to mint it. Whether or not the belief that top mangers are worth so much is justified is an interesting question, but given the natural human tendency to look for agency and causality in processes that are often simply random, I expect the cult of the star manager to persist for a long time.   

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10 hours ago, BraveSirRobin said:

 

In the future there will only be one crew member and a dog in the cockpit.  The crew member will monitor the flight computer.  The dog will be there to bite them if they try to touch anything.  

 

Well, then the dog’s gonna need to get trained up a little. In an emergency, every modern airliner is a true two crew member event ;)

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Interesting solution here that the Aussies across the ditch are coming up with for lower pilot training costs. I hear that the regional Australian airlines have been very hard-hit by shortages recently and are forcing some out of business.

 

 

The low cost is very helpful for pilot training but in Australia lots of their electricity is coal-fire plant generated and emissions are still there. This could have major emission savings in countries with higher proportions of renewable/clean power generation though.

 

Petrol engines may roar today, but I think electric engines whisper of the future... :pilot:

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8 hours ago, ATAG_kiwiflieger said:

Petrol engines may roar today, but I think electric engines whisper of the future... :pilot:

 

Don't hold your breath, though.

 

Electric can and will replace SOME avgas-powered flying, but we won't see anything like electrically powered commercial airliners in the near or even forseeable future.

That is unless you're willing to go nuclear, which would bring a whole different set of problems.

 

On 10/3/2018 at 12:10 AM, BraveSirRobin said:

The job of airline pilot probably won’t exist in 20-30 years. 

 

There is a very hgh probability that we will see automation take over at least another seat in the cockpit in the not too far future.

I'm not quite sure we'll see an all-automated cockpit in 20 years, though. The industry has way too much inertia and risk-aversity for that.

Which is a good thing.

Let the car-people get a hang of that first.

On 10/3/2018 at 4:39 AM, II/JG17_HerrMurf said:

The biggest problem is the Asian market is opening faster than pilots can be trained and tend to offer both quick build up of hours and decent pay. It is draining the traditional markets of pilots willing to pack up and change their home base for a while. It’s a great deal for young pilots. Senior guys with families probably aren’t going to bite on it. JetBlue and some other companies are considering bringing back programs to train pilots from the ground up for a return on investment of X number of years with the airline. If the do, it is also good for the industry. If I wasn’t on the verge of early retirement, I’d consider it.

 

Whether investing in an aviation-career in Asia is a good thing remains to be seen. If the global economy eventually tanks due to the countles bubbles we're - again - accumulating, the economy in China will taper off somewhat. That will be felt heavily in air-travel (and not only in Asia).

 

We'll probably also see some considerable market-consolidation across Europe in the next couple of years - for several reasons:

Airlines going bust due to their own mis-management and because Brexit will cause major dings on airlines having large market-shares in the Euro low-cost sector within Britain.

 

We'll also see what happens after the so often semi-officially announced Etirates/ Emihad merger.

 

The american airline-industry is already merged into oblivion, but an economical kink might as well have profound impacts on the industry - as seen in 2008.

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if i run the world i would make pilots pay instead of being paid and supress copyright

 

you dont get paid for doing things everybody loves, it just doesnt work that way, thats how removed and artificial we got

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17 hours ago, ATAG_kiwiflieger said:

Interesting solution here that the Aussies across the ditch are coming up with for lower pilot training costs. I hear that the regional Australian airlines have been very hard-hit by shortages recently and are forcing some out of business.

 

 

The low cost is very helpful for pilot training but in Australia lots of their electricity is coal-fire plant generated and emissions are still there. This could have major emission savings in countries with higher proportions of renewable/clean power generation though.

 

Petrol engines may roar today, but I think electric engines whisper of the future... :pilot:

Good for Gliders but it's nice to have the avgas  pop up behind you when 400 clicks downwind !

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