Ok let us see. If you take into account the size of the last 100 up dates and the number of line items in each up date. Then we can come up with an average of download size to line item. Then we have to mod (flight sim word) this number by the amount of hype in the forum, witch (night witch, if u can find one) is a good indication of content of the update. Now we have a good place to start. You then have to get rid of the outliers (get rid of influence of forum trolls) X the awesomeness (anytime you have P-38 and P51 together you must use this word)of the update. This gives us a factor to apply to our prime number that we the divide by the number of updates this month will result in the size of the update.
Now you may ask how I know this and what kind of experience do I have in the field of sats , well I was a stats guy in the military (CAMS for you USAF Aircraft guys) for the B-2 Bombers.
Factor comes out to 1(because this is the #1 update) X Prime number of 14.356GB (just a guess) divided by 1(number of updates) = 14.4 rounded up😏